AlgoTrendTraders Weekly Report - When Oil Volatility Surges 81% in One Week
Disciplined, Rules-Based Trading
AlgoTrendTraders Weekly Report
Thomas Meyer, Editor | March 9, 2026
Email: algotrendtraders@gmail.com
Welcome to this week’s AlgoTrendTraders report. We hope you’re enjoying and learning something that helps you in these newsletters. We want you to understand how you can control your risk more effectively.
The data and charts shown in this report are not meant to be recommendations and no buy/sell information is inferred. Please read the disclaimer underneath the charts.
Tom’s Musings
Good morning everyone. There’s a lot to go over from last week and today’s overnight trading.
As everyone knows, oil is leading the way. Though the headlines have been focusing on oil for just the past week or so, our bullish trade was triggered exactly a month ago.
Heading into last week, the Expected Move (EM) was $3.67, which equaled 4.48%. Look at what happened last week!
The EM is now at $8.85 which is 8.14%! That’s an 81% move higher. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen the EM on a ticker move that much higher on a percentage basis in one week.
As I’m writing this early in the morning, oil is another $25 higher. Could it go higher? Of course. Could it go lower? Of course.
I’m not here to try to predict what’s going to happen because I’d probably be wrong. And honestly, it doesn’t matter what I think.
What matters is the current trade. Our bullish trade is hugely profitable. Though it technically didn’t close in an overbought condition last week, if we extrapolate the current move, it’s definitely overbought.
If you’re long this trade, don’t wait for the stop to get hit at $80. Instead, you might want to consider using a trailing stop on your trade. With the listed EM at $8.85, consider using a trailing stop of 2x that amount, or $17.70. If the price of oil continues to climb, you’ll lock in more profit. If the price drops and you get stopped out, you’re looking at about a 40% profit from where the current price is. Not a bad result!
There were no changes in any of our other trades. Gold dropped a little last week, but the stop continued moving higher, which locks in more profit. SPY remains in a Neutral condition. QQQ hasn’t hit its stop, but it’s less than 1 EM away.
Bitcoin closed the week a little lower. If you didn’t exit the trade a little more than a month ago when we suggested using the 2 EM trailing stop (at a 21% profit), and you’re still in the trade, consider using some variation of the same exit (maybe a 1.5x EM or about a $9000 trailing stop) or choose your own. Just don’t let the trade turn from a highly profitable trade on the short side to a losing trade.
Webinar This Week
With all of the fear in the market, and the world, I’m going to host a webinar this week so we can discuss what’s going on, talk about trend-following and the investment strategies I manage for clients. I’ll have a 15-20 minute presentation and then open it up for your questions. The webinar will be on Wednesday evening, March 11th, at 6:30pm CDT. For more information and to register, please click here:
Navigating What’s Next: Staying Disciplined When Markets Get Difficult
Thomas Meyer Investment Management
If you’re not comfortable doing this on your own, and you’d like some help, there’s a simple solution. Let me do it for you! Anyone wanting to learn more about my investment management can check out the website for more information. Be sure to click on the “Let’s Connect” tab, fill it out, and we can discuss the next steps for me to manage a portion of your investable assets. By the way, I never actually hold your monies, they remain in your name, and the funds are custodied at Charles Schwab on the institutional side. Here’s my website:
www.tminvestmentmanagement.com
Market Overview
Oil dominates this week’s discussion. Our USO trade, entered exactly one month ago at $76.83, closed Friday at $108.77—that’s a 42% gain in 30 days. Monday morning it’s trading even higher. This is what happens when geopolitical risk meets supply constraints.
But here’s the critical point: volatility also surged 81% in one week. The Expected Move jumped from $3.67 to $8.85. When volatility explodes like this, the trade becomes overbought even if traditional metrics don’t show it. Use a trailing stop of 2x EM (about $17.70) to lock in profits while leaving room for continued upside.
SPY remains neutral, grinding through this correction. QQQ is hanging on by less than 1 Expected Move from the exit, still down from the February entry. Not adding to this position.
Gold pulled back slightly but the stop keeps rising, locking in more profit. Now sitting 1.1 Expected Moves from exit with 95% gains since January 2025.
Bitcoin’s bearish trade continues working, 4.6 Expected Moves from the stop. If you’re still in this trade with massive profits, tighten your trailing stop to 1.5x EM (about $9,000) to protect what you’ve earned.
This week’s lesson: When profits get this large this fast, discipline matters more than greed. Lock in gains.
Historical Results For SPY, QQQ, Bitcoin
The trend-following approach I use has a decade-long track record across multiple newsletters in three countries. Here are the results for SPY, QQQ, and Bitcoin since I started publishing on Substack:
Always have your exit strategies prepared before you enter into any trade.
Current Conditions for March 9, 2026
Be Sure to Read the Disclaimer at the End of This Report
Here are the latest charts…
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF)
Friday’s Closing Price: 672.38
Current Condition: Neutral
Weekly Expected Move: 34.69 (5.16%)
Stop: N/A
Distance from Stop: N/A
QQQ (Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF)
Friday’s Closing Price: 599.75
Current Condition: Bullish
Weekly Expected Move: 38.14 (6.36%)
Stop: 562.77
Distance from Stop: 0.8 Expected Moves
Current Trade Entry Price: 618.70
Current Trade Entry Date: 02 February 2026
USO (USCF Crude Oil ETF)
Friday’s Closing Price: 108.77
Current Condition: Bullish
Weekly Expected Move: 8.85 (8.14%)
Stop: 80.71
Distance from Stop: 2.2 Expected Moves
Current Trade Entry Price: 76.83
Current Trade Entry Date: 09 February 2026
Gold (Current Futures Contract)
Friday’s Closing Price: 5,181.30
Current Condition: Bullish
Weekly Expected Move: 470.75 (9.09%)
Stop: 4,421.81
Distance from Stop: 1.1 Expected Moves
Current Trade Entry Price: 2,652.80
Current Trade Entry Date: 06 January 2025
BTC (Bitcoin)
Sunday’s Closing Price: 66,140.40
Current Condition: Bearish
Weekly Expected Move: 6,624.48 (10.02%)
Stop: 89,914.63
Distance from Stop: 4.6 Expected Moves
Current Trade Entry Price: 87,041.62
Current Trade Entry Date: 26 January 2026
Understanding Trend-Following
For new readers: here’s what this system is and why it works.
Trend-following isn’t about getting rich quick. It’s about attempting to make money slowly—and keeping it. This system relies on a proven process: capture solid gains on winning trades while limiting losses on trades that don’t work out. We’re the tortoise, not the hare.
The Core Principle
We don’t try to predict the market’s next move. Instead, we measure what’s actually happening each week and follow the evidence. Our algorithms determine the current trend and calculate exit strategies based on each security’s normal volatility.
Why Weekly Data Matters
By using weekly closes, we ignore the day-to-day noise that causes most investors to make emotional decisions. This gives us clearer signals and better long-term results.
How Risk Management Works
When a trade moves against us, we exit with a small, controlled loss. But when a trade trends for months—like our current Gold position, up 95% over 14 months—we let it run as long as the trend remains intact. This asymmetry is how trend-following generates wealth over time.
Entry Timing
The best time to enter is when a fresh signal triggers—you’re getting in at the start of a potential long trend. Entering mid-trend is possible but riskier. If you’re chasing a trade that’s already well-established, consider using half or one-third of your normal position size.
A Word on Leverage
Experienced investors sometimes use options or leverage with trend-following signals. This amplifies both gains and losses. Never risk more than you can afford to lose—no matter how confident you feel about a trade.
The Bottom Line
Trend-following requires patience and discipline. But for investors who want to participate in market gains while protecting against catastrophic losses, it’s one of the most reliable strategies ever developed.
Disclaimer
The information published in this newsletter should not be used to make personal investment decisions. We do not know your personal financial situation. Investments should be made only after consulting with your professional investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectuses or financial statements of the companies in which you’re considering investing.