Thomas Meyer, Editor | September 29, 2025
Email: algotrendtraders@gmail.com | X: @AlgoTrendTrade1
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: The information published in this newsletter should not be used to make personal investment decisions. We do not know your personal financial situation. Investments should be made only after consulting with your professional investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectuses or financial statements of the companies in which you’re considering investing.
Executive Summary
Crude oil bounces higher, closing out bearish trade with small -2.82% loss after just 6 weeks. Major indices and gold push to fresh all-time highs, expanding profit cushions. Energy sector flips bullish on oil strength. Market shows continued strength despite typical September seasonality concerns.
Current Market Status
Active Trades & Exits
Key Developments
🛢️ Crude Oil Exit: Bearish trade hit its exit as oil bounced higher late last week. Closed with -2.82% loss after 6-week hold. Chart shows 3-year whipsaw pattern preventing sustained trends - frustrating but typical of trend-following discipline.
📈 Fresh Highs Continue: SPY and QQQ make new all-time highs, pushing stops higher and locking in double-digit profits on both positions.
🥇 Gold Acceleration: Another all-time high extends the remarkable 9-month run from January entry. Now showing 42.86% profit with 1.9 Expected Move buffer from stop.
₿ Bitcoin Pullback: New bullish position from September 15 entry now slightly underwater as price pulls back from entry level.
⚡ Sector Shift: XLE (Energy) flips bullish on strong oil move.
S&P 500 Sectors At-a-Glance
🟢 Bullish (7): Communications (XLC), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), Industrials (XLI), Technology (XLK), Utilities (XLU), Discretionary (XLY)
🟡 Neutral (3): Materials (XLB), Real Estate (XLRE), Healthcare (XLV)
🔴 Bearish (1): Staples (XLP)
XLE moves from neutral to bullish
Portfolio Services
Thomas Meyer Investment Management
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Here are the latest charts…
System Performance Through September 28, 2025
Why Trend-Following Works
The Problem with Buy-and-Hold: When you need your money (retirement, medical, education), a 30-50% loss at the wrong time can derail your plans forever.
The Solution: Disciplined exit strategies. Every trade has a predetermined stop-loss based on the security’s normal volatility. Small losses, big wins.
Key Principles:
Follow trends until they break
Weekly closes eliminate daily noise
Risk management is more important than being right
Boring but historically effective
Trading Methodology
The Yellow Channel System:
Above yellow zone = 🟢 Bullish (go long)
In yellow zone = 🟡 Neutral (no trade)
Below yellow zone = 🔴 Bearish (go short)
Exit Strategy: Based on each security’s 52-week volatility (”Expected Move”). Stops move up with profitable trades but never down.
Best Entry: When new signals trigger. Late entries carry higher risk - consider smaller position sizes.
Remember: Always have your exit strategy prepared before entering any trade.
This is not a “get-rich-quick” scheme. Trend-trading requires discipline, patience, and proper risk management. Past performance does not guarantee future results.