AlgoTrendTraders Weekly Report - One Eye on the Markets, One Eye on the Middle East
Disciplined, Rules-Based Trading
Thomas Meyer, Editor | March 2, 2026
Email: algotrendtraders@gmail.com | X: @AlgoTrendTrade1
AlgoTrendTraders Weekly Report
Disciplined, Rules-Based Trading
Welcome to this week’s AlgoTrendTraders report. We hope you’re enjoying and learning something that helps you in these newsletters. We want you to understand how you can control your risk more effectively.
The data and charts shown in this report are not meant to be recommendations and no buy/sell information is inferred. Please read the disclaimer underneath the charts.
Tom’s Musings
Good morning all. Today I have one eye on the market and one eye on the Middle East. The markets are set to open lower, but if the scope of the war doesn’t expand, the markets could easily rebound by the end of the week. Of course, that’s a big if.
Oil prices are higher and that’s helping our USO long trade. Even at the opening price of around $72/barrel, the price is still lower than when Israel was invaded on 10/7/2023. The price moved above $95 right before the invasion and then traded around $85 the week after. Today’s move feels like a knee-jerk reaction, not an important move higher.
Last week’s potential bullish trade in SPY did not trigger as the opening price was below the level needed to get into the trade. There are no new trades this week, but there are new exit strategies in place for the current trades. Be sure you have yours in place. There could be a lot of whipsaws this week.
Thomas Meyer Investment Management
If you’re not comfortable doing this on your own, and you’d like some help, there’s a simple solution. Let me do it for you! Anyone wanting to learn more about my investment management can check out the website for more information. Be sure to click on the “Let’s Connect” tab, fill it out, and we can discuss the next steps for me to manage a portion of your investable assets. By the way, I never actually hold your monies, they remain in your name, and the funds are custodied at Charles Schwab on the institutional side. Here’s my website: tminvestmentmanagement.com
Market Overview
Geopolitical tensions are driving Monday’s opening lower, but our systematic approach doesn’t change based on headlines. SPY remains neutral after last week’s failed entry attempt. QQQ is still hanging on at 0.8 Expected Moves from the exit, down from the February entry but not broken yet.
USO is benefiting from the Middle East tensions, sitting 1.0 Expected Move from the stop with solid profits. Oil spiked on the news but remains below the levels we saw after the October 2023 invasion—suggesting this might be a knee-jerk reaction rather than a sustained trend change.
Gold continues its incredible run, now past $5,296 and sitting 1.3 Expected Moves from the stop. That’s nearly 100% profit since January 2025. In times of geopolitical uncertainty, gold proves why it’s called a safe haven.
Bitcoin’s bearish trade keeps working, now 4.7 Expected Moves from the stop. This week’s volatility could test that position in either direction—make sure you have trailing stops in place to protect these gains.
This week could bring whipsaws across all positions. Stick to your exit strategies and don’t let emotion override discipline.
Historical Results For SPY, QQQ, Bitcoin
The trend-following approach I use has a decade-long track record across multiple newsletters in three countries. Here are the results for SPY, QQQ, and Bitcoin since I started publishing on Substack:
Always have your exit strategies prepared before you enter into any trade.
Current Conditions for March 2, 2026
Be Sure to Read the Disclaimer at the End of This Report
Here are the latest charts…
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF)
Friday’s Closing Price: 685.99
Current Condition: Neutral
Weekly Expected Move: 35.39 (5.16%)
Stop: N/A
Distance from Stop: N/A
QQQ (Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF)
Friday’s Closing Price: 607.29
Current Condition: Bullish
Weekly Expected Move: 38.62 (6.36%)
Stop: 562.77
Distance from Stop: 0.8 Expected Moves
Current Trade Entry Price: 618.70
Current Trade Entry Date: 02 February 2026
USO (USCF Crude Oil ETF)
Friday’s Closing Price: 81.95
Current Condition: Bullish
Weekly Expected Move: 3.67 (4.48%)
Stop: 76.77
Distance from Stop: 1.0 Expected Moves
Current Trade Entry Price: 76.83
Current Trade Entry Date: 09 February 2026
Gold (Current Futures Contract)
Friday’s Closing Price: 5,296.40
Current Condition: Bullish
Weekly Expected Move: 484.97 (9.16%)
Stop: 4,373.70
Distance from Stop: 1.3 Expected Moves
Current Trade Entry Price: 2,652.80
Current Trade Entry Date: 06 January 2025
BTC (Bitcoin)
Sunday’s Closing Price: 66,555.88
Current Condition: Bearish
Weekly Expected Move: 6,666.09 (10.02%)
Stop: 90,799.98
Distance from Stop: 4.7 Expected Moves
Current Trade Entry Price: 87,041.62
Current Trade Entry Date: 26 January 2026
Understanding Trend-Following
For new readers: here’s what this system is and why it works.
Trend-following isn’t about getting rich quick. It’s about attempting to make money slowly—and keeping it. This system relies on a proven process: capture solid gains on winning trades while limiting losses on trades that don’t work out. We’re the tortoise, not the hare.
The Core Principle
We don’t try to predict the market’s next move. Instead, we measure what’s actually happening each week and follow the evidence. Our algorithms determine the current trend and calculate exit strategies based on each security’s normal volatility.
Why Weekly Data Matters
By using weekly closes, we ignore the day-to-day noise that causes most investors to make emotional decisions. This gives us clearer signals and better long-term results.
How Risk Management Works
When a trade moves against us, we exit with a small, controlled loss. But when a trade trends for months—like our current Gold position, up nearly 100% over 14 months—we let it run as long as the trend remains intact. This asymmetry is how trend-following generates wealth over time.
Entry Timing
The best time to enter is when a fresh signal triggers—you’re getting in at the start of a potential long trend. Entering mid-trend is possible but riskier. If you’re chasing a trade that’s already well-established, consider using half or one-third of your normal position size.
A Word on Leverage
Experienced investors sometimes use options or leverage with trend-following signals. This amplifies both gains and losses. Never risk more than you can afford to lose—no matter how confident you feel about a trade.
The Bottom Line
Trend-following requires patience and discipline. But for investors who want to participate in market gains while protecting against catastrophic losses, it’s one of the most reliable strategies ever developed.
Disclaimer
The information published in this newsletter should not be used to make personal investment decisions. We do not know your personal financial situation. Investments should be made only after consulting with your professional investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectuses or financial statements of the companies in which you’re considering investing.