AlgoTrendTraders Weekly Report - All Good Things Come to an End
Disciplined, Rules-Based Trading
Thomas Meyer, Editor | March 23, 2026
Email: algotrendtraders@gmail.com | X: @AlgoTrendTrade1
Welcome to this week’s AlgoTrendTraders report. We hope you’re enjoying and learning something that helps you in these newsletters. We want you to understand how you can control your risk more effectively.
The data and charts shown in this report are not meant to be recommendations and no buy/sell information is inferred. Please read the disclaimer underneath the charts.
Tom’s Musings (All Good Things Come to an End)
The price of gold opened last night at $4450.00, which was below the stop calculated in the weekend update. The bullish trade closes with a gain of almost 68% since the trade was initiated on January 6, 2025. That’s almost 15 months in a single trade!
The speed with which the market has dropped is pretty sudden. It was just a few weeks ago we were talking about how the sectors had held up pretty nicely though there had been a rotation in the bullish sectors. Now, in just 3 weeks, it’s beginning to look a lot more negative. Here are the sectors and their current status.
You’ll notice that the Financials and Consumer Discretionary are both bearish. There’s probably not much relief in sight as long as the war is going on.
RSP, the S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF, is also now in a Neutral condition after a sharp drop the past couple of weeks.
It will likely take time for the market to come to a state of equilibrium before it can begin moving higher again. In spite of all the negativity, we’re still pretty close to the all-time highs.
A Note on the Future of This Newsletter
Next week’s issue will be the last one I’ll publish, at least for a while. As I mentioned last week, I want to focus on my client communications and give this information (and more) to my clients and prospects. I have a special topic planned that will sum up 150 years of market wisdom (sometimes I feel like I’ve been around that long).
We’ll also give you the results and directions on exiting the current trades.
Thomas Meyer Investment Management
If you’re not comfortable doing this on your own, and you’d like some help, there’s a simple solution. Let me do it for you! Anyone wanting to learn more about my investment management can check out the website for more information. Be sure to click on the “Let’s Connect” tab, fill it out, and we can discuss the next steps for me to manage a portion of your investable assets. By the way, I never actually hold your monies, they remain in your name, and the funds are custodied at Charles Schwab on the institutional side. Here’s my website: www.tminvestmentmanagement.com
Market Overview
Gold hit its stop Monday morning, closing out one of the best trades in the newsletter’s history: 68% profit over 15 months. This is exactly what trend-following is designed to do—ride a powerful trend for over a year, then exit systematically when it breaks. Gold is now in Neutral condition as it resets.
No other ticker conditions changed this week, but the underlying picture is deteriorating. Markets dropped sharply with two sectors now bearish (Financials and Consumer Discretionary) and RSP falling into Neutral. The rotation we tracked for weeks has accelerated into broader weakness.
SPY remains Neutral, continuing to grind lower. QQQ is barely hanging on at just 0.4 Expected Moves from the exit—down significantly from the February entry and very close to stopping out. This position is on life support.
USO continues its extraordinary run at $121.43, now up 58% from the February 9 entry. Still 2.2 Expected Moves from the stop with volatility remaining elevated near 10%. Keep those trailing stops in place—when oil moves this far this fast, reversals can be equally violent.
Bitcoin’s bearish trade pulled back to 3.8 Expected Moves from the stop as BTC dropped to $68,359. Still profitable but the cushion is shrinking.
Markets are in transition. Gold showed us how to exit a winning trade with discipline. Next week we’ll review the full Substack-era results.
Historical Results For SPY, QQQ, Bitcoin
The trend-following approach I use has a decade-long track record across multiple newsletters in three countries. Here are the results for SPY, QQQ, and Bitcoin since I started publishing on Substack:
Always have your exit strategies prepared before you enter into any trade.
Current Conditions for March 23, 2026
Be Sure to Read the Disclaimer at the End of This Report
Here are the latest charts…
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF)
Friday’s Closing Price: 648.57
Current Condition: Neutral
Weekly Expected Move: 33.46 (5.16%)
Stop: N/A
Distance from Stop: N/A
QQQ (Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF)
Friday’s Closing Price: 582.06
Current Condition: Bullish
Weekly Expected Move: 37.01 (6.36%)
Stop: 562.77
Distance from Stop: 0.4 Expected Moves
Current Trade Entry Price: 618.70
Current Trade Entry Date: 02 February 2026
USO (USCF Crude Oil ETF)
Friday’s Closing Price: 121.43
Current Condition: Bullish
Weekly Expected Move: 11.88 (9.78%)
Stop: 84.40
Distance from Stop: 2.2 Expected Moves
Current Trade Entry Price: 76.83
Current Trade Entry Date: 09 February 2026
Gold (Current Futures Contract)
Friday’s Closing Price: 4,492.00
Current Condition: Neutral (Trade closed Monday morning at stop)
Weekly Expected Move: 391.01 (8.70%)
Stop: N/A
Distance from Stop: N/A
Final Trade Result: +68% over 15 months
BTC (Bitcoin)
Sunday’s Closing Price: 68,359.74
Current Condition: Bearish
Weekly Expected Move: 6,846.76 (10.02%)
Stop: 88,337.54
Distance from Stop: 3.8 Expected Moves
Current Trade Entry Price: 87,041.62
Current Trade Entry Date: 26 January 2026
Understanding Trend-Following
For new readers: here’s what this system is and why it works.
Trend-following isn’t about getting rich quick. It’s about attempting to make money slowly—and keeping it. This system relies on a proven process: capture solid gains on winning trades while limiting losses on trades that don’t work out. We’re the tortoise, not the hare.
The Core Principle
We don’t try to predict the market’s next move. Instead, we measure what’s actually happening each week and follow the evidence. Our algorithms determine the current trend and calculate exit strategies based on each security’s normal volatility.
Why Weekly Data Matters
By using weekly closes, we ignore the day-to-day noise that causes most investors to make emotional decisions. This gives us clearer signals and better long-term results.
How Risk Management Works
When a trade moves against us, we exit with a small, controlled loss. But when a trade trends for months—like our Gold position that just closed with 68% profit over 15 months—we let it run as long as the trend remains intact. This asymmetry is how trend-following generates wealth over time.
Entry Timing
The best time to enter is when a fresh signal triggers—you’re getting in at the start of a potential long trend. Entering mid-trend is possible but riskier. If you’re chasing a trade that’s already well-established, consider using half or one-third of your normal position size.
A Word on Leverage
Experienced investors sometimes use options or leverage with trend-following signals. This amplifies both gains and losses. Never risk more than you can afford to lose—no matter how confident you feel about a trade.
The Bottom Line
Trend-following requires patience and discipline. But for investors who want to participate in market gains while protecting against catastrophic losses, it’s one of the most reliable strategies ever developed.
Disclaimer
The information published in this newsletter should not be used to make personal investment decisions. We do not know your personal financial situation. Investments should be made only after consulting with your professional investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectuses or financial statements of the companies in which you’re considering investing.