Thomas Meyer, Editor
April 25, 2022
Welcome to this week’s AlgoTrendTraders Weekly Commodity report. Before we get into this week’s report, be sure to follow us on Twitter: @AlgoTrendTrade1 for updates. Also, we’re keeping this a free newsletter for the near future. We’ll let you know when that will change.
Please send any questions you have to the email address listed above and we’ll share some of them in these reports. If there’s something you don’t understand, there’s probably a good chance others don’t understand it either.
A Crack in the Bullishness?
The last half of the week saw massive selling in most of the commodities we follow. The bullish trades in Silver and Copper hit their exits with small losses of -2.12% and -2.44% respectively. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, and Wheat also fell. Only Corn and Soybeans ended the week higher.
The commodity losses coincided with the stock market dropping. Early Sunday evening, all of the commodities we follow were trading lower again. Be sure that your exit strategies are in place. We could see several more stop outs this week.
For those wanting to know more about Trend Trading
The overview of the AlgoTrendTraders system is underneath the charts. Those familiar with our methodology can get right to the trades. If you’re new to trend-trading, be sure to read this introductory section. This will help you understand the concept of trend-trading and why it’s so powerful.
Each week, we show you the Composite Table that has the week-ending price, current volatility, and the updated exit strategy for each of the commodities.
We say this a lot because it’s the most important element for successful investing… Always have your exit strategies prepared before you enter into any trade.
The Composite Table for April 25, 2022
WTI Crude Oil dropped last week, but it remains in a Bullish Condition. The current exit on the trade is $92.73 which is 0.9 Expected Moves (EM) from Friday’s closing price.
Natural Gas traded up to the $8.00 level, but dropped sharply to end the week. It remains in a Bullish Condition. The current exit on the bullish trade is $5.61 which is 1.2 EM from the week-ending price.
Gold moved lower last week, but it remains in a Bullish Condition. The current exit on the bullish trade is $1885.40 which is 0.8 EM from Friday’s closing price.
Silver dropped sharply last week and hit the exit on the bullish trade. It is currently in the middle of the yellow channel Transition Zone (TZ) and in a Neutral condition. There is no trade this week in Silver.
Copper also fell for the week and hit the exit on the bullish trade. It is currently inside the TZ in a Neutral condition. There is no trade in Copper this week.
Corn closed higher for the week and it remains in a Bullish condition. The exit price on this trade is 663.50 which is 2.3 EM from Friday’s closing price.
Soybeans also closed higher last week and remain in a Bullish condition. The exit price on the trade is 1501.75 which is 2.2 EM from the weekly closing price.
Wheat closed lower last week, but it remains in a Bullish condition. The exit price on this trade is 927.00 which is 1.2 EM from last week’s closing price.
Be Sure to Read the Disclaimer at the End of This Report
Here are the latest charts…
In this weekly report, we give you the trading signals for eight of the most liquid traded commodities. The signals are based on trend-following principles. Very simply, commodities, like stocks, stay in trends until they don’t. Trends can last a short time or they can last for months and even years at a time.
This is not a “get-rich-quick” scheme
If you’re looking to make a ton of money in a short time, you’re going to be disappointed. Trend-trading is not fancy; it’s boring, and takes time to be successful. This is a system that relies on a historically-proven process to generate solid returns on winning trades and avoid large losses on losing trades. We’re definitely the tortoise, not the hare.
Trend-following systems don’t try to guess what the next move in the markets might be. Instead, we measure the markets each week and use our algorithms to determine the current trend and the exit strategy for the current trades.
The key to the winning trades greatly outperforming the losing trades is the risk management system. If a trade moves against us, we’ll get out of the trade with a small loss. But if a trade trends higher for months at a time, we have the ability to build up substantial profits.
AlgoTrendTraders uses both trend and momentum to generate the trading signals. The yellow channel you see in the center of the charts is called the “Transition Zone”. When a commodity is above the yellow channel, it’s in a Bullish condition. When it’s below the yellow channel, it’s in a Bearish condition. When it’s in the middle of the channel, it’s in a Neutral condition and there is no trade.
Selling is More Important Than Buying
Every trade has a pre-determined exit strategy. This is based on the normal volatility of the underlying ticker. Each commodity has its own unique volatility. And volatility is dynamic. It’s constantly changing. Each week, we look at the previous 52 weeks of price movement to come up with its normal weekly volatility. This is called the “Expected Move”. The Expected Move equals one week of the normal volatility of the stock or ETF being measured. Every week, the exit strategy for each ticker is updated.
The system is based on the weekly closes of the underlying tickers. All trading information and volatility calculations are based on weekly volatility. By using weekly calculations, the system ignores the day-to-day noise in the markets and is able to give better signals.
It’s easy to see the periods of time that volatility increases and decreases. As the yellow channel Transition Zone widens on the charts, the volatility is increasing. The opposite is true; when the Transition Zone narrows on the charts, the volatility is decreasing.
The best time to enter a trade is when a new signal is given. This gives you the greatest opportunity to get into a trend that could last a long time. Though it’s possible to get into a trade after a trend has been in place for a while, the risk in that trade is elevated. Consider using 1/2 or 1/3 of your normal investment for these situations.
Commodity trading is for experienced investors who understand leverage and trading on margin. It’s possible to lose more than your initial investment even with a stop in place.
The information published in this newsletter should not be used to make personal investment decisions. We are not licensed by any federal or state entity to give investment advice. We do not know your personal financial situation. Investments should be made only after consulting with your professional investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectuses or financial statements of the companies in which you’re considering investing.