Thomas Meyer, Editor
January 3, 2022
Welcome to this week’s AlgoTrendTraders Weekly Commodity report. Before we get into this week’s report, be sure to follow us on Twitter: @AlgoTrendTrade1 where we will update these trades during the week.
Happy New Year!
Though there are currently only 2 open trades, 2021 saw some powerful trends that generated profitable trades. You can see these in the charts underneath the Composite Table. There were strong bullish trades in WTI Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Copper, Corn, and Soybeans. Some of these actually started in 2020 and continued into 2021.
Expect more of the same in 2022. That means there will be uptrends and downtrends; some will last a short time and won’t be profitable and some will last for months and be nicely profitable. Trends always last until they don’t. That’s why we measure the trends and the individual risk for each commodity listed. Is there a guarantee that we’ll make money in 2022? Unfortunately, no. But we know that using a disciplined, rules-based system gives us the best opportunity for profitable trading in the long run.
Please send any questions you have to the email address listed below and we’ll share some of them in these reports. If there’s something you don’t understand, there’s probably a good chance others don’t understand it either.
We currently have two active trades. The bearish trade in Silver remains intact and the bullish trade in Wheat that was initiated last week. Both of these trades are close to hitting their listed stops. All of the details for these trades are in the Composite Table.
For those wanting to know more about Trend-Trading
The overview of the AlgoTrendTraders system is underneath the charts. Those familiar with our methodology can get right to the trades. If you’re new to trend-trading, be sure to read this introductory section. This will help you understand the concept of trend-trading and why it’s so powerful.
Each week, we show you the Composite Table that has the week-ending price, current volatility, and the updated exit strategy for each of the commodities.
We say this a lot because it’s the most important element for successful investing… Always have your exit strategies prepared before you enter into any trade.
The Composite Table for January 3, 2022
WTI Crude Oil closed higher last week and is now in the upper half of the Transition Zone (TZ). It is close to triggering a new bullish trade, but for now, it remains in a Neutral condition. There is no trade this week.
Natural Gas closed the week unchanged. It remains in a Neutral condition. There is no trade this week.
Gold moved higher last week and is now in the upper half of the TZ. It is close to triggering a new bullish trade, but for now, it remains in a Neutral condition. There is no trade this week in Gold.
Silver moved higher again last week. It remains in a Bearish condition. The current exit on the bearish trade is 23.75 which is 0.3 Expected Moves (EM) from Friday’s close. There is a high probability that Silver hits this exit price as it is well within its normal weekly volatility.
Copper moved slightly higher again last week, but it remains in a Neutral condition. There is no trade in Copper this week.
Corn moved a little lower last week and remains near the center of the TZ. It remains in a Neutral condition. There is no trade this week in Corn.
Soybeans moved slightly lower last week. It remains inside the TZ in a Neutral condition. There is no trade in Soybeans this week.
Wheat moved sharply lower last week, but it did not hit its listed stop. It remains in a Bullish condition. The listed exit strategy is 755.50 which is 0.4 EM from Friday’s close. There is a high probability that Wheat hits this exit price as it is well within its normal weekly volatility.
Be Sure to Read the Disclaimer at the End of This Report
Here are the latest charts…
In this weekly report, we give you the trading signals for eight of the most liquid traded commodities. The signals are based on trend-following principles. Very simply, commodities, like stocks, stay in trends until they don’t. Trends can last a short time or they can last for months and even years at a time.
This is not a “get-rich-quick” scheme
If you’re looking to make a ton of money in a short time, you’re going to be disappointed. Trend-trading is not fancy; it’s boring, and takes time to be successful. This is a system that relies on a historically-proven process to generate solid returns on winning trades and avoid large losses on losing trades. We’re definitely the tortoise, not the hare.
Trend-following systems don’t try to guess what the next move in the markets might be. Instead, we measure the markets each week and use our algorithms to determine the current trend and the exit strategy for the current trades.
The key to the winning trades greatly outperforming the losing trades is the risk management system. If a trade moves against us, we’ll get out of the trade with a small loss. But if a trade trends higher for months at a time, we have the ability to build up substantial profits.
AlgoTrendTraders uses both trend and momentum to generate the trading signals. The yellow channel you see in the center of the charts is called the “Transition Zone”. When a commodity is above the yellow channel, it’s in a Bullish condition. When it’s below the yellow channel, it’s in a Bearish condition. When it’s in the middle of the channel, it’s in a Neutral condition and there is no trade.
Selling is More Important Than Buying
Every trade has a pre-determined exit strategy. This is based on the normal volatility of the underlying ticker. Each commodity has its own unique volatility. And volatility is dynamic. It’s constantly changing. Each week, we look at the previous 52 weeks of price movement to come up with its normal weekly volatility. This is called the “Expected Move”. The Expected Move equals one week of the normal volatility of the stock or ETF being measured. Every week, the exit strategy for each ticker is updated.
The system is based on the weekly closes of the underlying tickers. All trading information and volatility calculations are based on weekly volatility. By using weekly calculations, the system ignores the day-to-day noise in the markets and is able to give better signals.
It’s easy to see the periods of time that volatility increases and decreases. As the yellow channel Transition Zone widens on the charts, the volatility is increasing. The opposite is true; when the Transition Zone narrows on the charts, the volatility is decreasing.
The best time to enter a trade is when a new signal is given. This gives you the greatest opportunity to get into a trend that could last a long time. Though it’s possible to get into a trade after a trend has been in place for a while, the risk in that trade is elevated. Consider using 1/2 or 1/3 of your normal investment for these situations.
Commodity trading is for experienced investors who understand leverage and trading on margin. It’s possible to lose more than your initial investment even with a stop in place.
The information published in this newsletter should not be used to make personal investment decisions. We are not licensed by any federal or state entity to give investment advice. We do not know your personal financial situation. Investments should be made only after consulting with your professional investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectuses or financial statements of the companies in which you’re considering investing.